Will there be a second wave of the virus?
With nearly 20,000 new cases a day, some don't see us even finishing the first wave! At least in the US! Seems many have decided that with most States "opening up" there is no more need to practice distancing or mask wearing, much less staying home!
NEWS FLASH!! The virus has not left the room! It is still spreading! It is still killing! What part of serious do these people not understand?
Prominent forecasters are predicting a slow but steady accumulation of additional deaths between now and Oct. 1...
Forecasts range from 56,000 to more than 90,000!
Earlier this year the the reproduction number ("R" value) was
above 2. During the "stay at home"/"closing businesses and large gatherings of people" the rate got down to just below 1 ( latest estimates was ~0.91, at its lowest ). But with the push the "open up", it has already exceeded 1 again. Basically, the "R" value indicates the rate at which one individual infects another. At 1, only one new person becomes infected by the another person and the "curve" is fairly flat. At 2, you see an increasing rate; 1 infects 2. Those 2 infect 4. Those 4 infect 16. No math degree is needed to see where this leads. The obituary pages have pointed out the outcome of
any rate
above 1. The CDC now estimates between 124,000 and 140,000 deaths by July 4, 2020. Those are
deaths, not just
reported cases! Are you doing your part to stop this increasing number? Many countries have. These figures are easily found by any good search engine. You should have plenty of time to do that.